技术进步对能源行业劳动力就业的影响效应

Research on the Impact of Technological Progress on the Employment of Labor Forces in the Energy Industry

文章利用能源行业1985-2016年的数据,运用Malmquist指数法测算能源工业技术进步率后,与该行业内的劳动力就业变化率构建VAR模型,并进行脉冲响应函数与方差分解对模型进行分析。研究发现:在样本时期内,技术进步在当年并不会对劳动力就业量产生影响,而是从第二年开始对就业量产生影响,其影响具有时滞性、长期性和平稳性的特点;技术进步在不同时期对劳动力就业的影响不同;在短期,挤出效应可能大于促进效应,从长期来看,能源行业的技术进步会稳定促进该行业劳动力就业量的增加。

Through using the data of the energy industry from 1985 to 2016,the Malmquist index method was used to measure the technological progress rate of the energy industry,and a VAR model was constructed with the employment rate of change in the industry.Impulse response function and variance decomposition were used to analyze the model.There are two findings from the research.First,during the sample period,technological progress did not affect the employment of the labor force in the current year;from the second year on,the influence of the progress on employment contained delayed,long-term,and stable features.Second,technological progress has different effects on labor employment in different periods.In the short run,the crowding out effect may be greater than the promoting effect.In the long run,the technical progress of the energy industry will steadily increase the employment of the labor force in the industry.