中国房地产价格与城镇居民收入的匹配研究

Matching of Real Estate Prices and Urban Residents' Income in China

为了便于反映城镇居民收入与房地产价格的互动关系,文章运用格兰杰因果关系检验,发现房地产价格以及住宅价格的变动并非导致城镇居民收入变动的原因,相反,城镇居民收入的增长才是引起房地产价格和住宅价格走高的原因,城镇居民收入水平与房地产价格以及住宅价格存在单向的因果关系。进而,为了测度购房压力,文章通过构建了价格-收入比系数,用以测度房地产价格与城镇居民实际收入水平的量化对比关系。结果表明,无论是全国总体层面,还是省域细化层面,虽然房地产呈现出来的价格-收入比有所下降,但是,相对于城镇居民的平均收入水平而言,购房压力始终很大。而且,按平均水平计算,难免会掩盖中低收入者的购房压力。为此,研究针对这一系列的房地产问题,提出了相应的决策建议,以便起到进一步的优化作用。

The Grainger Causality Test is used in the paper to find that the change of real estate price and housing price are not the causes of the change of urban residents'income.On the contrary,the growth of urban residents'income is the cause of the higher real estate price and housing price.There is a unidirectional causal relationship between the income of urban residents and real estate price,as well as housing price.Besides,in order to measure the housing pressure of urban residents,the ratio coefficient between the real estate prices and the actual income level of urban residents is constructed.The results show that the ratio of price to income is decreasing both on the national level and the provincial level,but relatively as to the average income level of urban residents,the purchase pressure is still very high.Therefore,in view of a series of real estate problems,the corresponding decision-making suggestions are put forward to play a further optimization role.