基于PR-SEM的煤矿安全管理风险因素综合评价

Comprehensive evaluation of risk factors of coal mine safety management based on PR-SEM

安全管理是煤矿安全高效生产的重要保障。为探究煤矿安全管理风险致因,通过问卷调查结合专家访谈获取煤矿安全管理风险因素,将随机游走的Page Rank算法和结构方程模型(SEM)相结合,运用随机游走的Page Rank算法进行专家权重计算,将问卷分值中引入专家权重值,精准挖掘影响煤矿安全管理的18项关键风险因素,以此作为外源潜变量,以3个风险后果指标为内源潜变量,构建基于PR-SEM的风险因素评价模型,对煤矿安全管理风险因素进行综合评价,并借助STATA 12. 0软件工具对模型进行验证。研究表明:在直接影响效应排序中,安全管理能力影响作用较大,在综合影响效应排序中,安全管理能力的影响作用较小。说明安全管理能力对安全管理风险后果作用的显著性和直接性,而且各种风险因素会相互演化,导致煤矿安全事故的发生。

Safety management of coal mine is an important guarantee for efficient production of coal mine.In order to explore the causes of coal mine safety management,the risk factors of coal mine safety management were obtained through questionnaire survey and expert interviews.The random walk Page Rank algorithm and the structural equation model(SEM)were used,then algorithm Page Rank of random walk was used to do expert weight calculation that was introduced to questionnaire item value.The 18 key risk factors influencing coal mine safety management were uncovered precisely,which worked as exogenous latent variables,three risk consequence indexes were taken as endogenous latent variables.Risk factor evaluation model was built according to PR-SEM,comprehensive evaluation on risk factors of coal mine safety management and software STATA 12.0 were used to verify the model.As a result,in the sorting of direct effect,safety management is larger in the sorting of the comprehensive effect,the influence of the safety management ability is small.It shows the significance and directness of safety management ability on risk consequences of safety management,and all kinds of risk factors of coal mine safety management will be mutally evolved,which leads to coal mine safety accidents.