中国碳强度减排目标实现的路径及可行性研究

Feasibility study on China's potential paths to intensity-based carbon reduction targets

为探讨实现强度减排目标的可能路径及每种路径下的可行性,在能源效率随机前沿分析模型的基础上,运用最大似然法对84个国家1971—2014年平均能源效率进行估计。并在此基础上综合考虑能源结构、经济结构、人力资本、资本存量和潜在能源效率5个要素,结合权威机构对上述要素未来发展的预测数据及参数,构建单一要素和多要素组合的96种模拟情景,系统分析每种减排路径下的中国碳强度减排情形及实现减排目标所要付出的减排努力。研究发现:(1)提高潜在能源效率对于实现减排目标的贡献度最大,且仅通过调整能源结构、经济结构、人力资本、资本存量或潜在能源效率的单一减排路径难以实现中国强度减排目标。(2)中国若要实现减排目标,必须从能源结构(化石燃料占比要低于80%,且平均增速要降低2.2%),经济结构(服务业占比要高于60.4%,且非服务业增速要降低2.4%),人力资本(持续稳定),资本存量(持续稳定)和潜在能源效率(提高1%)来优化减排路径。在上述研究的基础上,给出如下政策建议:(1)通过技术创新和能源市场机制创新,不断提高能源效率。(2)加快工业产业结构升级,降低生产生活碳排放量。(3)不断优化国家能源结构,促进源头排放量降低。(4)给予人力资本和资本存量稳定合理的发展空间,为碳减排提供要素支撑。

To explore the possible paths for achieving intensity reduction targets and the feasibility of each route,based on the stochastic frontier analysis model of energy efficiency,the maximum likelihood method was used to estimate the average energy efficiency of 84 countries from 1971 to 2014.In view of this model,we comprehensively considered five factors:energy structure,economic structure,human capital,capital stock,and potential energy efficiency.Using forecast data on the factors from authoritative sources,we have modeled 96 scenarios on the effects of each single factor and their combinations,and systematically analyzed the results of carbon intensity reduction in China along each possible path,and the efforts required to achieve the reduction target.It is found:first,increasing the potential energy efficiency makes the greatest contribution to the target,which are unlikely to be achieved through adjusting any single one of the five factors;second,to hit its target,China needs to optimize its energy structure(the fossil fuel ratio must be lower than 80%,and its average growth rate must be decreased by 2.2%),economic structure(the service sector GDP ratio must be higher than 60.4%,while the growth rate of non-service sectors must be lowered by 2.4%),human capital and capital stock(both of which must maintain stable growth),and potential energy efficiency(which needs 1%increase).Based on the above studies,the following policy recommendations are given:first,continuously improving energy efficiency through technological innovation and innovation in energy market mechanisms;second,accelerating the upgrading of the industrial structure and reducing the carbon emissions from production and living;third,continuously optimizing the national energy structure and promoting the reduction of source emissions;fourth,providing a stable and reasonable development space for human capital and capital stock,and providing essential support for carbon emission reduction.