中国地级以上城市二氧化碳排放的影响因素分析:基于扩展的STIRPAT模型

Driving forces of carbon dioxide emission for China's cities: empirical analysis based on extended STIRPAT Model

中国不同城市在发展阶段、经济结构、气候条件、人口结构等都存在明显的差异,不同城市二氧化碳排放的主要影响因素及其影响程度也各不相同。本文基于最新的城市尺度二氧化碳排放数据库CHRED及CHRED2.0,通过加入产业结构、城市化和气候差异等因素,对传统STIRPAT模型进行扩展,考察了中国地级以上城市二氧化碳排放的影响因素。结果显示:人口规模、第二产业产值占比和采暖需求的增长都会显著提高一个城市的二氧化碳排放,同时部分城市二氧化碳排放会随着富裕程度的上升呈现先增加后减少的趋势,但城镇化率对二氧化碳排放的影响具有不确定性。从全国样本来看,2005年和2012年人口因素变化对碳排放影响变化较小,维持在0.7左右;气候因素的变化对碳排放的影响从2005年的0.288 1下降为2012年的0.000 2;第二产业产值比重变化的影响从2005年的0.744 2上升到2012年0.979 5;同时碳排放量与人均GDP在2005年存在倒U型关系,但到2012年这种关系不再显著。除了针对全国尺度的分析外,本研究还依据城市人口规模进行分组研究,并在此基础上进一步进行分位数回归,进而识别出不同规模城市二氧化碳排放量的影响因素差异。今后在制定城市节能减排政策对城市二氧化碳排放量进行管理的过程中,决策者需要在把握关键影响因子的前提下依据城市自身特点做到因地制宜、区别对待。

There are great differences in development stage,economic structure,climatic conditions and population structure for cities in China.Therefore,the driving forces and the degree of impact on carbon dioxide emissions are also different.Based on the latest urban scale CO 2 emission database CHRED and CHRED2.0,this paper extended the traditional STIRPAT model by adding factors such as industrial structure,urbanization and climate differences,and investigates the driving forces of carbon dioxide emissions in cities above prefecture level in China.The results show that the growth of population size,output share of the secondary industry and heating demand will significantly increase a city’s carbon dioxide emissions,while some cities’carbon dioxide emissions will increase first and then decrease with the increase of wealth,but impact of the urbanization rate change on carbon dioxide emissions has an uncertainty.For the national sample,it found that the impact of changes in population size on carbon emissions is steady in 2005 and 2012,around 0.7.The impact of changes in climate difference on carbon emissions has dropped from 0.288 1 in 2005 to 0.000 2 in 2012.The impact of changes in the output share of the secondary industry rose from 0.744 2 in 2005 to 0.979 5 in 2012.There is an inverted U-shaped relationship of carbon emissions and per capita GDP in 2005,but it was not significant in 2012.In addition to the analysis of the national scale,by categorizing the cities based on population size and exploring the quantile regression,the three groups show heterogeneity in terms of their driving forces of carbon dioxide emission.In the future,in the process of formulating urban energy conservation and emission reduction policies for the management of urban carbon dioxide emissions,policymakers need to adapt to the local characteristics and differentiate them according to the characteristics of the city on the premise of grasping the key impact factors.