核能技术方向研究及发展路线图

Research on Technology Directions and Development Roadmap of Nuclear Energy

笔者按照核能技术成熟度将课题分解为热堆、快堆和四代堆、受控核聚变科学技术三个专题,采取专题调研、交叉讨论、系统综合的方法开展研究。分析了核能技术发展的现状、我国核能的安全性、核能技术的发展方向,并给出了核能技术发展路线图。建议以第三代自主压水堆为依托,安全、高效、规模化发展核能;加快第四代核能系统研发,解决核燃料增殖与高水平放射性核素嬗变;积极发展模块化小堆,开拓核能应用范围;努力探索聚变能源。预期到2030年核电运行1.5×10~8 kW,在建5×10~7 kW;到2050年快堆和压水堆匹配发展。我国核能发展存在前端和后端能力不足、核心技术研发力量分散、竞争大于合作的局面,建议整合国内资源,组建核能国家实验室,集中力量推进我国核能产业健康、快速发展。

According to the development level of nuclear energy technologies,this project is divided into three subjects,i.e.,thermal neutron reactors,fast neutron reactors and generation IV reactors,and controlled nuclear fusion science and technology.Subject investigation,cross discussion and systematic integration methods are used in different stages of the research.This paper consists of the current status,safety,technological direction,and development roadmap of China’s nuclear energy.It is suggested that China should take the following measures.First,China should promote its independent advanced pressurized water reactor to enlarge the nuclear energy scale in a safe and efficient way in the short run.Second,China should accelerate the research and development of generation IV nuclear energy systems to deal with the problems of nuclear fuel breeding and transmutation of transuranics and long life fission products,and develope small modular reactors actively to expand the application range of nuclear energy in the mid run.Third,China should keep exploring the fusion energy in the long run.It is expected that there will be 1.5×108 kW of nuclear reactors in operation and another 5×107 kW in construction in 2030 and there will be a harmonious development of pressurized water reactors and fast neutron reactors in 2050.The development of China’s nuclear energy is also facing some challenges,such as the insufficient capacity of the front part and post part of the nuclear industry chain,the divergence in research and development power of the core technology,and more competition than cooperation among state owned companies.It is hoped that the China should construct a State Nuclear Energy Lab through integration of existing resources so as to concentrate the strength to promote the development of nuclear energy industry in a healthy and rapid way.