城市能源战略发展指标评价体系研究

Study on Urban Energy Strategy Development Index Evaluation System

本文针对城市能源战略发展指标,提出了指标设计的六大原则,构建了城市能源战略发展评价的二级指标体系以及相应的计算模型和方法,及时纳入能源新革命、新技术、新业态、新商业模式,涵盖了能源供给、能源消费、电能替代、能效提升、系统灵活、绿色低碳、创新发展、产业发展、安全可靠、经济效益、能源体制共十一个方面。该指标体系适合我国城市能源战略发展决策,笔者以张家口市为例进行了应用验证,对张家口市2017年现状进行了评价、对2020年以及2030年的能源战略发展进行了预测,指出该市具有较强基础、较大发展潜力以及亟待技术突破的领域,提出了城市能源发展目标和城市能源战略发展建议,为城市能源发展提供了指导方向。

According to the urban energy strategy development indexes,this paper puts forward six principles for index design,and constructs a two-grade index system for development evaluation of the urban energy strategy,and corresponding calculation models and methods.The two-grade index system introduces new revolution,new technologies,new formats and new business models into the energy system,and covers eleven aspects:energy supply,energy consumption,electric power replacement,efficiency promotion,system flexibility,green and low carbon,innovation and development,industry development,safety and reliability,economic benefits,and energy system.This index system adapts to decisions on development of the urban energy strategy in China.For the evaluation and prediction of energy strategy in 2017,2020 and 2030,this index system is applied to Zhangjiakou as an example for verification.This paper points out that Zhangjiakou has a strong resource foundation,a great development potential and also important fields in need of technological breakthroughs,proposes energy development goals and strategic development advices,and provides guidance for future urban energy development.