中国与东南亚国家贸易潜力及影响因素研究——基于随机前沿引力模型

Measurement of Trade Potential Between China and Southeast Asian Countries and Its Determinants Based on Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

运用时变随机前沿引力模型和贸易非效率模型,以1998-2016年中国及东南亚九个国家面板数据为样本,测度中国对东南亚国家出口贸易潜力,并分析其主要影响因素。结果表明:1998-2016年中国对东南亚国家出口贸易潜力呈现先上升后下降趋势,依然有较大提升空间,中国对东南亚国家出口贸易潜力差异较大。航空运输货运量、货币自由度、财务自由度、商业自由度及世界贸易组织成员国均对出口贸易非效率具有显著的影响。

Using the time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model and the trade inefficiency model,this paper measures the export trade potential of China to Southeast Asian countries and analyses the main influencing factors with the panel data of 9 countries in China and Southeast Asia from 1998 to 2016.The results show that the potential of China's export trade to Southeast Asian countries is rising first and then decreasing from 1998 to 2016.So it still has large room for improvement.And the trade potentials between China and Southeast Asian countries varied greatly.The study also demonstrates the positive relationship between trade potentials and the air transport freight,monetary freedom,financial freedom,commercial freedom and World Trade Organization member countries.