地方政府债务扩张机制与债务风险研究

Research on Local Government Debt Expansion Mechanism and Debt Risk

近年来国内地方政府债务持续上升,从实践看,国内地方政府债务具有机制性扩张特征,即使有数据显示现实中地方政府债务水平仍在合理范围内,机制性扩张特征带来的债务持续快速扩张,使地方政府债务比预期更快突破合理水平,形成地方政府债务风险而且不可逆。同时,机制性扩张会助长违规融资,通常违规融资具有变通性与隐秘性,成为地方政府隐性债务的主要来源。由于隐性债务很难统计,现有的地方政府债务估算并不能反映地方政府债务的真实状况。机制性扩张与隐性债务,会放大地方政府债务规模与债务风险,因此,需要从机理上认识地方政府债务成因,从机制上规范地方政府债务。

In recent years,China s local government debts are on the increase.In practice,these debts are institutionally expanding in nature.Even if statistics show that the actual debt level is still within the rational scope,the debts brought by institutional expanding continue to shoot up,so that the local government debts break the rational level faster than expected,causing a risk in debts and its irreversibility.At the same time,institutional expansion might boost financing against the rules,which is usually flexible and clandestine,thus becoming the main source of implicit debts for local governments.Since implicit debts are difficult to be counted,the current estimates of local government debts do not reveal the real conditions.Institutional expansion and implicit debts would magnify the scale of local government debts and debt risks,so it is necessary to find out the root cause of these debts in mechanism and regulate local government debts in an institutionalized way.