不确定性会影响货币政策对房价的调控效应吗?——基于LT-TVP-VAR模型的实证检验

Can Uncertainty Affect the Effect of Monetary Policy on Housing Prices?——An Empirical Analysis Based on LT-TVP-VAR Model

我国房地产市场素有"政策市"之称,而频繁的宏观调控不可避免地会产生政策不确定性的问题。本文在经济政策不确定性的视角下,通过LT-TVP-VAR模型研究了货币政策对房地产价格的调控效应以及不确定性对房价的溢出效应。研究结果显示,货币政策对房价的调控效果具有显著的时变特征与非对称性,经济政策不确定性会削弱货币政策对房价的调控效果。同时,不确定性本身也会对房价产生明显的溢出效应。为此,政府应当加强预期管理,保持政策的连贯性与一致性,以降低经济政策不确定性对货币政策以及房地产市场的影响。

From the perspective of economic policy uncertainty,this paper studies the effect of the monetary policy on real estate prices and the spillover effect of uncertainty on housing prices through LT-TVP-VAR model.The results show that the monetary policy has significant time-varying and asymmetric effects on the control of housing prices.Economic policy uncertainty will weaken the effect of the monetary policy on housing prices.At the same time,uncertainty itself can have a significant spillover effect on house prices.Therefore,the government should strengthen the expectation management and maintain the coherence and consistency of policies,so as to reduce the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the monetary policy and the real estate market.