基于系统动力学和蒙特卡洛模拟的电动汽车日负荷远期预测

Long-term Daily Load Forecast of Electric Vehicle Based on System Dynamics and Monte Carlo Simulation

对电动汽车负荷进行预测,有助于电力系统规划管理与优化运行。首先从宏观、中观、微观角度,采用系统动力学模型构建电动私家汽车保有量预测模型,随后分析电动汽车充放电特性,采用蒙特卡洛方法模拟电动私家汽车充放电行为,最后利用实际数据,预测未来电动私家汽车大规模接入电网后电网负荷曲线的变化,发现在电动私家车无序充电的情景下,电动私家汽车体量越大,电网峰谷差越大,带来的不利影响也越大,通过进一步测算发现,电动私家汽车参与放电可以在一定程度上缓解电动汽车充电增加的电网负荷,具有一定削峰填谷效益。

A private electric vehicle quantity forecasting model is established from macro,medium and micro perspective based on system dynamics model.Then the charging and discharging characteristics of electric vehicles are analyzed.Besides,the Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the charging and discharging behavior of private electric cars.Finally,the actual data is used to predict the change of grid load curve considering large-scale electric vehicles accessing to the grid in the future.The results show that,in the case of unregulated charging mode,the larger the quantity of electric private cars is,the greater the difference between the peak and the valley load and the adverse impact are.Moreover,it is found by further calculation that private electric cars participating in the discharge can,to some extent,cut down the grid peak load increased by EV charging and has a certain peak-load shifting benefits.