产业集聚与区域经济增长的空间溢出效应研究——基于中国省级制造业空间杜宾模型

Research on Spatial Spillover Effect of Industrial Agglomeration and Regional Economic Growth:Based on the Spatial Dubin Model of China's Provincial Manufacturing Industry Panel Data

基于2012—2015年中国31个省域面板数据,选用空间杜宾模型对中国制造业集聚与区域经济增长的内在逻辑及其空间溢出效应进行实证分析,结果表明:中国制造业集聚具有明显的区域差异特征,区域经济增长的空间自相关性特征显著;在考虑了空间依赖性及相关控制变量后,制造业集聚不仅会对本省域的经济增长起到促进作用,同时会对相邻省域经济发展形成一定的正向溢出效应;据此,进一步从"示范、扩散和乘数效应"等方面提出调整优化中国未来制造业空间布局及提升区域经济水平的政策建议。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2012 to 2015,the spatial Dubin model of China is used to analyze the inherent logic and spatial spillover effect of manufacturing industry agglomeration and regional economic growth in China.The empirical results show that China's manufacturing industry has obvious regional differences;regional economic development has significant spatial autocorrelation characteristics;after considering the spatial dependence and related control variables,manufacturing agglomeration will not only play a positive role in the economic growth of the province,but also have a certain positive spillover effect on the adjacent provinces of economic growth.Accordingly,putting forward some policy suggestions to adjust and optimize the layout of the future manufacturing industry and enhance the regional economic level from the aspects of"demonstration,diffusion and multiplier effect".