丝绸之路经济带核心区物流业效率及其收敛性分析

Analysis on Logistics Industry Efficiency and Its Convergence in the Core Area of Silk-Road Economic Belt

基于丝绸之路经济带核心区的面板数据,选用DEA模型,从总体特征、分层次比较、时空演变特征和收敛性四个方面对核心区物流业效率进行了分析。分别采用动态面板固定效应的条件β收敛模型对核心区整体、中亚五国和西北五省区物流业效率的收敛路径进行分析。研究表明:(1)核心区物流业效率存在区域差异;(2)核心区整体、中亚五国和西北五省区的物流业效率分别呈"W"形、"V"形和上升"W"形演进,且均存在阶段性δ收敛和绝对β收敛,中亚五国和西北五省区之间存在"俱乐部收敛";(3)核心区整体、中亚五国和西北五省区之间存在条件β收敛。经济发展水平、物流专业化程度对核心区整体和中亚五国物流业效率的收敛性有显著影响,物流专业化程度和对外开放程度对西北五省区物流业效率的收敛性有显著影响。据此,提出促进物流业"八化"的对策。

Based on panel data in the"core area"of Silk Road Economic Belt,useing the DEA model,analyzes logistics industry efficiency from four aspects:overall characteristics,hierarchical comparisons,characteristics of spatial and temporal evolution and convergence.Uses conditionalβconvergence model with dynamic panel fixed effects to analyze on the convergence of logistics industry efficiency in the"core area",the Five Central Asian Countries and the Five Provinces in Northwest China.Our study finds that:(1)logistics industry efficiency exists regional differences;(2)logistics industry efficiency in the"core area",the Five Central Asian Countries and the Five Provinces in Northwest China change with"W","V"and"W"shape,there are both periodicσconvergence and absoluteβconvergence,there is"Club Convergence"between the Five Central Asian Countries and the Five Provinces in Northwest China;(3)the conditionalβconvergence exists in the"Core Area",the Five Central Asian Countries and the Five Provinces in Northwest China;the level of economic development,logistics specialization have significant impacts on the convergence in the"core area"and the Five Central Asian Countries,logistics specialization and openness to the outside world have significant impacts on the convergence in the Five Provinces in Northwest China.According to this,the paper puts forward the suggestions of“Eight Transformations”to promote the development of logistics industry.