成渝城市群经济增长的结构分析——基于扩展MRW模型的实证研究

Structural Analysis of Economic Growth of Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration:A Empirical Research Based on an Extended MRW Model

经济增长的实质是资源要素结构持续不断的变化过程。在我国经济发展步入新常态,"供给侧结构性改革"凸显了要素结构在经济增长中的重要性,"新结构经济学"理论认为经济结构内生决定于要素禀赋结构。通过扩展人力资本MRW模型,构建了包含教育投资、健康投资以及产业结构的新内生经济增长模型,探索性地对成渝城市群要素结构与其经济增长的关系进行实证分析研究。结果表明:产业结构与人力资本结构中的教育投资对成渝城市群经济增长的影响作用较大,而物质资本由于其过多的存量积累而呈现边际报酬递减现象,从而对经济增长的影响相对较弱;人力资本结构中的健康投资受总人口死亡率小幅上升影响,其对经济增长的贡献呈现负效应。因此,成渝城市群在经济增长过程中,要通过改善提升人力资本结构的投资质量,使之与物质资本存量和产业结构形成最佳匹配比例,共同推动其经济持续增长。

The essence of economic growth lies in the continuous changes in the structure of resource factors.China's economic development has entered into a new norm,whereby"supply-side structural reform"highlights the importance of factor structure in economic growth,and whereby the theory of"new structural economics"advocates that economic structure is determined by factor endowment structure.By expanding the MRW model of human capital,this paper constructed a new endogenous economic growth model which includes education investment,health investment,and industrial structure,and then exploratorily conducted an empirical study on the relationship between the element structure and economic growth in Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration.The results showed that the industrial structure and the education investment of the human capital had a significant impact on the economic growth of Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration,whereas the material capital,due to its excessive accumulation of stock,presented diminishing marginal returns and thus demonstrated a relatively weaker impact on economic growth.Meanwhile,the health investment of the human capital structure had a negative effect on economic growth due to the small increase in the mortality rate of the total population.Therefore,it is suggested that,in the process of economic growth,Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration should improve the quality of investment in the human capital structure,to facilitate its optimal match ratio with the stock of material capital and the structure of industries,and ultimately to effectively coordinate all factor resources for a better and sustained economic growth in the region.