闽三角城市群生态安全动态评估

Dynamic assessment of ecological security in the urban agglomeration of Min Delta

人口高度密集、经济社会发达的城市群可能诱发严重的生态安全问题,然而目前对闽三角这样的中小型城市群的生态安全研究成果相对较少。论文以闽三角城市群为例,将灰色系统理论与熵值赋权法相结合,采用压力-状态-响应(pressure-state-response,P-S-R)模型,分析了闽三角城市群不同时期(2004、2010、2015年)生态安全动态变化。结果表明:(1)闽三角城市群生态安全状况在这一时期呈现出由较安全向较不安全转变的趋势,且内部差异明显;(2)厦门市生态安全综合指数(0.894 8～0.728 4)高于泉州市(0.446 7～0.444 2)与漳州市(0.624 8～0.451 8),处于较安全水平,而泉州市和漳州市生态安全水平均在良以下水平,生态安全形势严峻;(3)泉州市生态安全压力指数(0.574 1～0.604 6)、响应指数(0.545 6～0.594 8)表现出由较不安全水平转变为临界安全水平的态势,生态安全状况有好转趋势,状态指数(0.494 5～0.473 4)始终在较不安全水平;(4)漳州市生态安全压力指数(0.754 9～0.519 8)、状态指数(0.532 5～0.467 8)、响应指数(0.662 0～0.642 8),从2004—2015年逐渐降低,漳州市生态安全状况堪忧。

Highly populated and developed urban agglomerations may induce serious ecological security problems,however,there are relatively few researches concerning on the ecological safety of small and medium-sized urban agglomerations such as the Min Delta urban agglomeration.Taken the urban agglomeration of Min Delta as an example,the methods of gray system theory,the entropy weighting,and the pressure-state-response(P-S-R)model were adopted in this article to analyze the dynamic change of ecological security in different periods in Min Delta urban agglomeration.The results showed that:(1)In this period,the ecological security situation in the urban agglomeration on Min Delta showed a tendency of transition from safer to less safe,and its internal difference was obvious.(2)The comprehensive ecological safety index(0.894 8~0.728 4)of Xiamen is higher than that of Quanzhou(0.446 7~0.444 2)and Zhangzhou(0.624 8~0.451 8),which was at a safe level,while ecological security levels in Quanzhou and Zhangzhou remain below the favorable level,suggesting the ecological security situation was grim.(3)Quanzhou ecological safety pressure index(0.574 1~0.604 6)and response index(0.545 6~0.594 8)showed a critical safety situation,while the ecological security condition has a better trend;the state index(0.494 5~0.473 4)was at less safety level at all periods,showing the transition from a relatively unsafe level to a critical safety level.(4)Zhangzhou ecological safety pressure index(0.754 9~0.519 8),state index(0.532 5~0.467 8),and response index(0.662 0~0.642 8),decrease from 2004 to 2015,and its ecological safety status were not optimistic.