印度莫迪政府可再生能源发展计划:动因、成效与制约

The Modi Administration's Renewable Energy Development Plan:Drivers,Achievements and Limitations

莫迪执政后,印度政府对外宣称将推行世界上最大规模的可再生能源发展计划。该计划的推出缘于经济增长需求、能源安全诉求、政治利益需要等多重动因。2015～2017年印度政府已对该计划的目标进行了数次修订、提升和细化。总体而言,印度的可再生能源计划实施以来取得了一定成效,但距其目标仍有较大差距,且存在诸如体制、资金、土地、技术、基础设施、行政能力等一系列制约因素。目前,印度尚未采取系统解决这些制约因素的有效措施,可能导致该发展计划目标无法按期实现。由于可再生能源在总体能源消费中的占比较低,即便计划目标能够实现,对国家能源安全的保障作用有限,因此印度的能源困境仍将长期存在。

After the Modi Administration took office,India announced that it would begin to promote the world’s largest renewable energy plan.The introduction of this energy plan is rooted in the country’s needs with respect to economic development,energy security,as well as political interests.From 2015 to 2017,the Indian government made several revisions and improvements to the plan,including incorporating specific details of aspects of the plan.Generally speaking,since the implementation of the plan a number of achievements have been made,but major gaps remain between its objectives and current levels of implementation.At the same time,India faces many limitations with respect to institutional barriers,capital,land,technology and infrastructure.To present,India has yet to identify effective means of systematically overcoming these limitations,and as a result,risks failing to meet the plan’s objectives according to schedule.What is more,even if it meets its planned objectives,as renewable energy represents only a small fraction of the country’s overall energy consumption,the plan may realize only limited benefits with respect to India’s energy security.As such,India will continue to face long term energy concerns.