道路环境对历史街区自行车骑行速度的影响分析

Bicycle Riding Speed Influenced by Road Environment in Historic Districts

针对历史街区优先发展慢行交通的理念,以自行车骑行速度为因变量,归纳整理出自行车道宽、自行车流量等7个道路环境因素,建立了各因素对历史街区自行车骑行速度影响概率的Logistic模型。结果表明:自行车道宽、自行车流量与行人数量是影响骑行速度的主要因素,其中,自行车道宽每增加1.0 m,骑行速度受到影响的概率最大减少0.352;自行车流量、行人数量越多对骑行速度的影响概率越大,单位小时单条道路每增加100人可使影响概率最大提高0.250。当自行车道宽大于3.5 m(双向)且单条道路的行人数量小于500人/小时,骑行速度受到的影响较小,骑行环境趋于最优。可见,该模型能较好地揭示影响历史街区自行车骑行速度的主要因素,并可为街区慢行交通规划提供理论依据。

On the basis of the concept of priority development of slow traffic in historic districts,7 road environmental factors such as bicycle lane width and bicycle flow were summed up by taking bicycle riding speed as the dependent variable,and the Logistic model of the impact probability of various factors on the bicycle riding speed in historic districts was established.The results show that the factors such as bicycle lane width,bicycle flow and the number of the pedestrians are the main factors influencing the bicycle riding speed.When the bicycle lane width is increased by 1.0m,the impact probability of riding speed is reduced by 0.352 at most.The greater the number of bicycles and pedestrians is,the larger the probability of impact on cycling speed will be;and the impact probability will be increased by 0.250 at most for an increase of 100 persons per hour for a single lane.When the bicycle lane width is greater than 3.5 m(two-way)and the number of pedestrians on a single lane is less than 500 persons per hour,the bicycle riding speed is less affected so that the riding environment tends to be optimal.Therefore,the proposed model can better reveal the main factors that affect bicycle riding speed in historic districts and provide theoretical basis for slow traffic planning in blocks.