基于改进TOPSIS模型的黑龙江省水资源短缺风险评价

Comprehensive evaluation of water resources shortage risk in Heilongjiang Province based on improved TOPSIS model

利用熵权法和灰色关联理论改进TOPSIS模型,综合评价黑龙江省及其13个地市粮食产能提升期(2003~2015年)水资源短缺风险。结果表明人,黑龙江省水资源短缺风险表现出先升后降变化趋势,其中"十一五"期间水资源短缺风险普遍较高,"十二五"后逐年降至中度短缺风险等级。从时空演变角度分析,黑龙江省13个地市水资源短缺状况呈"东西高、南北低"风险分布特点,以哈尔滨为中心向东、西、南方向呈短缺风险愈加严峻辐射扩散趋势。

As the largest province of China's domestic grain industry,Heilongjiang Province is gradually increasing its risk of water shortage,while pursuing the continuous growth of the agricultural economy.In this paper,the TOPSIS model improved by the entropy weight method and the grey relational theory was used to comprehensively evaluate the water shortage risk during the grain production upgrading period(2003-2015)in Heilongjiang Province and its 13 prefecture-level cities.The results showed that the risk of water shortage in Heilongjiang Province showed a trend of rising and then decreasing.The risk of water shortage during the"Eleventh Five-Year Plan"period was generally high.After the"Twelfth Five-Year Plan",the risk was reduced to the medium shortage risk level.From the perspective of time and space evolution,the water shortage situation of 13 prefecture-level cities in Heilongjiang Province showed the risk distribution characteristics of"high east and west,low north and south",and showed the trend of radiation diffusion the risk of shortage in the east,west and south was more severe with the provincial capital Harbin as the center.