嵌入或有补偿对CoPS合约方违约行为抑制作用的演化分析

The governance of the coPS contractors' default behaviors by embedding contingent compensation in the contract proved by evolutionary game

复杂产品系统研制合同签订后,因环境变化常常发生违约行为。本文引入金融行业中或有可转债的理念来解决违约行为治理问题,研究了含或有补偿的嵌入式合约设计。首先分价格上涨和价格下跌两种情况,分别建立了博弈得益矩阵、构建了复制动态方程,并推导了违约行为的演化路径;之后设计了含或有补偿的嵌入式合约,并证明了或有补偿对违约行为的抑制作用。研究发现:(1)当价格波动幅度不大时,利益受损方倾向于选择履约;(2)当价格波动较大时,利益受损方倾向于选择违约;(3)合约中嵌入或有补偿后,可有效地降低违约行为。本文提出了"或有补偿"的概念,并设计了成本增加率和价格降低率双层触发器,以激励合约双方向着合作的方向演化,研究结果的应用可提高复杂产品系统项目的成功率。

Complex Product of Systems(CoPS)industry as a high-end equipment manufacturing industry produces high-speed trains and ocean engineering projects,which are essential to economic development.However,the default behaviors of contractors seriously affect the performance of CoPS project.CoPS has many special characteristics,such as user customization,development and manufacturing of complex technology,and user participation in the development and manufacture process.Because of these special characteristics,the default risk of CoPS is different from that of products that are produced in large quantities.Thus,the study on contract governance of CoPS has important theoretical significance and practical value.In the existing researches on risk governance of CoPS,although the behaviors of stakeholders are already examined all of the researches from the view of the integrator(the manufacturer),most researches assume that the contract price is fixed.The current study either focuses on the choice of cooperative partner before the signing of the contract,or focus on the management of cooperative partner after the signing of the contract.Taking the above deficiencies of existing researches into account,this study adopts the concept of“contingent compensation"which is originated from the"contingent convertible bond"in the financial industry in order to inhibit default behaviors through contract governance by designing an incentive compatible contract embedded contingent compensation terms.Firstly,considering the context of the market referable price increases after the signing of the contract,this paper analyzes the payoff matrix of both parties,and studies the evolutionary stable strategy by evolutionary game theory.Secondly,considering the context of the market referable price decreases during the middle and late period of CoPS developing and manufacturing,the paper analyzes the payoff matrix of both parties,and studies the evolutionary stable strategy by evolutionary game theory.Moreover,incentive compatible contract embedded contingent compensation terms is designed,with two triggers,one is cost increase rate and the other one is price reduction rate.The new payoff matrix with"contingent compensation"is discussed and the paper analyzes the effect of"contingent compensation"on the evolutionary stable strategy.The intention of double triggers is to inhibit default behaviors caused by either the price increase after the signing of the contract or the price decrease during the middle and late period of CoPS developing and manufacture.Finally,numerical simulation is used to verify the conclusion of this paper by the matlab software.The study finds that:(1)The default behaviors of contractors of CoPS are determined by economic dynamics.The loser(one of the CoPS contractors who lost its benefit due to environment change)tends to comply with the contract when price changing is smaller.However,the loser tends to choose default behavior when price changing is larger;(2)Taking the“contingent compensation”clauses into consideration,the trigger becomes active when the market referable price increases sharply after the signing of the contract,and the benefits of the two parties are re-balanced.Thus,the“contingent compensation”clauses are able to inhibit the manufacturer’s default behavior;(3)Taking the“contingent compensation”clauses into consideration,the trigger becomes active when the market referable price decreases sharply during the middle and late periods of CoPS developing and manufacturing,and the benefits of the two parties are re-balanced.Therefore,the“contingent compensation”clauses are able to inhibit the user’s default behavior;From the layer of mechanism by the method of evolutionary game,this paper verifies the conclusion about CoPS risk governance which was proposed by other scholars using the method of cases or statistical analysis.Dynamic environment makes the unbalance of the stakeholders’rights and interests,and finally leads to the loser breaking the contract.Furthermore,this paper defines the concept of"contingent compensation",designs double triggers(one is cost increase rate and the other is price reduce rate),and verifies by the methods of evolutionary game and numerical simulations.As a result,incentive compatible contract embedded contingent compensation terms can effectively inhibit default behaviors.