中国新疆与“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家的贸易格局及潜力

Trade Pattern and the Potential of Xinjiang and Countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt

中国新疆在"丝绸之路经济带"建设中起着桥梁和枢纽的作用,研究新疆与"丝绸之路经济带"沿线国家的贸易格局和潜力具有重要的现实意义。本文通过拓展贸易引力模型对新疆与"丝绸之路经济带"沿线国家的贸易潜力进行测算和分类。结果显示,新疆与"丝绸之路经济带"沿线国家的进出口贸易额呈现波动上升趋势,贸易增长方式以出口拉动为主,贸易顺差不断扩大。"丝绸之路经济带"沿线国家是新疆对外贸易的主要目标国,而上合组织国家是新疆最为核心的贸易对象国。新疆对外经贸合作的区域布局为:周边国家为核心区,西亚国家为辐射区,欧盟国家为开拓区。

This paper tests trade potentials of countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt by adopting the extended trade gravity model.The result of this study indicates that trade volume manifests a fluctuating upward trend and trade surplus keeps enlarging as boosted by exportation.The target regions for Xinjiang to conduct economic and trade cooperation cover peripheral countries,West Asian countries and EU countries.