十二大之后越南政治的演变与中越关系的走势

The Evolution of Vietnam's Politics after the 12th National Congress of CPV and the Trend of Sino-Vietnamese Relations

越共十二大是革新开放后竞争最为激烈一次党代会,也是承上启下逐步实现代际更替的权力交接之会。在十二大上,阮富仲纵横捭阖,打破常规获得连任。然而,会后越南政局跌宕起伏,先后发生郑春成事件和二丁事件,完全打破了十二大前后党内各派所达成的默契和权力平衡,使得越南政局的未来走向充满了变数,也不可避免的影响到中越关系。短期而言,二丁事件使得阮富仲得以完成五年的任期,这将有利于中越关系的近期发展;长期而言,丁世兄退场则意味着在阮富仲之后积极倡导中越理论合作的党务派后继乏人,而主张全面融入国际,倾向于优先发展与美西关系的新生代将掌握权力中枢。这将毫无疑问对中越关系的未来发展产生深远的影响,对此中国必须要切实重视,未雨绸缪。

The 12th National Congress of the CPV was the most fiercely contested party congress after innovation and it was also the meeting of the power transfer from the older generation to the younger generation.At the 12th National Congress,Nguyen Phuc Trong re-elected as General Secertary.However,after the meeting,the political situation in Vietnam was ups and downs.The Trinh Xuanthanh incident and the Dinh La Thang-Dinh The Hung incident completely broke the tacit agreement and power balance reached by the various factions within the party around the 12th National Congress,making the future direction of the political situation in Vietnam full of variables and inevitable.The impact of the Two-Dinh on Sino-Vietnamese relations will have good result in the short term,which will enable Nguyen Phuc Trong to complete his five-year term and will benefit the recent development of Sino-Vietnamese relations.In the long-term,the exit of Dinh The Hung means that the Party Secretary who actively advocated the Sino-Vietnamese theory cooperation after Nguyen Phuc Trong has no successors.While advocating full integration with the international community,the new generation that prefers to give priority to developing relations with the United States and the West will have the power center.This will undoubtedly have a far-reaching impact on the future development of China-Vietnam relations.China must pay close attention to this and plan ahead.