放松计划生育、延迟退休与中国劳动力供给

Relaxing Fertility Control,Postponing Retirement and Labor Supply in China

本文沿用经典的代际交叠模型,将个体生育和退休决策内生化,分析放开"一孩"和延迟退休政策对中国劳动力供给的影响。与中国"养儿防老"的传统吻合,模型中家庭内部进行的收入转移仍是养老的一种主要方式,因此子女的生育决策类似于一种投资行为。理论分析结果表明,延迟退休政策对生育决策的影响取决于子女在消费品和投资品属性上的强弱,而放开一孩政策使人们愿意提早退休。此外,基于中国经济校准后的动态模拟结果显示,相对于完全放开生育控制,实行"二孩"政策会降低生育的收敛速度,生育成本上升会显著降低居民的生育意愿,延迟退休也会部分抵消放开一孩的政策效果,从而制约中国劳动力供给的增长。

This paper analyses the effects of relaxing fertility control and postponing the retirement age on the aggregate labor supply in China.We first build an overlapping-generations model where agents make endogenous fertility and retirement decisions.In our model,intra-family transfer turns children into household investment goods.Our analytical results suggest that the impact of postponed retirement policy on fertility decisions depends on whether children are more like“consumption goods”or“investment goods”,while the relaxation of the“one-child policy”would contribute to early retirement.We then calibrate the model to the Chinese economy and find that the recent implementation of the“two-children policy”in China,rather than completely liberalising birth control,would reduce the fertility convergence rate.Increased child-rearing cost would greatly discourage fertility,and postponed retirement would also partially offset the effects of the one-child relaxation policy,hence reducing the future growth of the labor supply.