中国货币政策的信心传导机制

The Entrepreneurs' Confidence in Monetary Policy Transmission

本文构建了一个含有货币政策指标、信心指标、通货膨胀及真实经济产出增长率的SVAR模型,运用反事实对比仿真实验方法获得中国企业家信心指标在货币政策传导中的作用。实证结果发现,宽松货币政策能够促进产出增长,然而一旦企业家信心的桥梁作用被移除,货币政策对产出的提升效果则大幅下降。这表明,如果货币政策不能有效增强企业家信心,其最终调控目的将难以实现。有意思的是,基于同一调查问题的银行家信心指数在货币政策传导中没有发挥明显作用。我们进一步考虑了不同的货币政策度量方式、企业定价行为及企业投资行为,结果均保持稳健。

This article investigates the role of confidence in the transmission of Chinese forward-looking monetary policy.We construct an SVAR model that involve the growth rate of monetary supply,entrepreneurs confidence,inflation and real economic output,and use the counterfactual simulation to identify the role of confidence in monetary policy transmission.While expanding monetary policy shocks contribute to real output growth,shutting down the confidence channel significantly undermines the stimulation effect of monetary policy.If monetary policy fails to boost entrepreneurs confidence,it will be hard to achieve the ultimate goal.Interestingly,the bankers confidence index based on the same survey question fails to play an important role in monetary policy transmission.Our results remain robust when alternative measures of monetary policy,the firm s pricing strategy and investment behavior are taken into account.