经济全球化再平衡与中美贸易摩擦

Rebalance of Economic Globalization and Trade Frictions between China and the U.S.

随着以全球价值链深化为特征的世界经济发展过程中各国收益不平衡的积累,美国以税改为起点启动了"再平衡"战略,并与中国发生大规模贸易摩擦。本文从经济全球化"再平衡"背景下中美经贸关系调整和基于全球价值链评估中美贸易摩擦的新视角出发,选取全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)并将其数据库加以更新,在中美两国已公布实际产品清单的基础上,详细分解了美国税改背景下中美贸易摩擦对两国乃至主要贸易伙伴全球价值链活动的影响效应,最终将解决问题的根本策略落脚在对经济全球化"再平衡"的中长期应对上。本文发现,全球价值链在中美贸易摩擦中起到了缓冲作用,但随着摩擦规模的扩大,中国受到的负面影响将会叠加。而作为美国"再平衡"的基石,税改是可能改变经济全球化进程的重要因素,而且美国的后续措施将是一个系统的"一揽子"方案。因此,本文建议中国应基于全球价值链加强自贸区建设以寻求新的价值链闭合,并在继续深化内部经济结构调整的同时加强知识产权保护等方面做好中美经贸关系调整的长期准备。针对上述建议进行的模拟分析表明,新的自贸区构建和加强知识产权保护不仅能够缓解中美贸易摩擦对中国的负面影响,而且能够形成新的增长点,促进中国经济增长。

As the development of the world economy,characterized by the deepening of global value chains,incomes across countries have become increasingly unbalanced,the United States has initiated its“rebalancing”strategies with the“Tax Cut and Job Act”as the starting point,as well as large-scale trade frictions with China.Under the“rebalance”of economic globalization,this paper started from a new perspective of China-U.S.economic and trade relations adjustment and the assessment of China-U.S.trade frictions effects based on global value chains.Employed GTAP model and its database developed by Purdue University,based on the latest tariff lists released by China and the U.S.,this paper decomposed the economic effects of the global value chain activities among China,the U.S.and their major trading partners triggered by the current large-scale trade frictions between the two countries in the context of U.S.tax cuts in detail.The fundamental coping strategies have been,ultimately,settled in mid-term to long-term responses to the“rebalance”of economic globalization.Findings in this paper showed that the global value chains have played as buffers to the China-U.S.trade frictions.Nevertheless,as the scale of the frictions growing,negative implications on China will be accumulated.However,the tax cut,as the cornerstone in the U.S.rebalancing strategies,plays an important role that may change the process of economic globalization,and the follow-up measures by the United States will be systematic package arrangements.Therefore,this paper proposed that China should strengthen its free trade agreement network based on global value chains,to seek the new closure of global value chains,and improve intellectual property rights protection while continuously carry on internal economic restructuring for the long-planned readjustment to China-U.S.trading relations.The simulation on the above-mentioned proposals has shown that restructuring new free trade agreements and improving intellectual property rights protection will not only alleviate the negative impact of China-U.S.trade frictions on China,but also cultivate new growth points,to promote China’s economic growth.