2007-2015年湖南省水资源安全状态与短板要素甄别

Water resources security state of Hunan Province during 2007-2015 and the short-board factors

根据水资源安全内涵,构建湖南省水资源安全评价指标体系,采用水资源安全综合指数辨识2007-2015年湖南省水资源安全状态;根据短板要素理论,构建湖南省水资源安全评价体系多木桶模型,采用均衡度指标度量各桶片(指标)的长度差异,将指标分为优势要素、限制性要素和短板要素,辨识系统短板。从纵向(年际)和横向(指标)比较分析湖南省水资源安全现状与发展趋势。结果表明:(1)湖南省水资源安全系统,2011年为较不安全状态,2015年为较安全状态,其余年份为临界安全状态,2007-2015年间湖南省水资源安全呈现前期形势较为严峻、后期矛盾缓和的特点;(2)绘制湖南省水资源安全短板要素图,甄别出防洪治涝形势严峻、废水及有机污染物排放量较多和工农业及生活用水量较大是当前影响湖南省水资源安全的主要短板要素。

First,based on the connotation of water resources security,we built an evaluation index system for water resources security of Hunan province,and determined the water resources security state during 2007-2015 with the integral index of water resources security.Second,we built a multi-bucket model for the evaluation system based on the short-board factors theory,and measured the length difference between bucket staves(indexes)with the"equilibrium degree"index.The indexes were divided into dominant factors,restrictive factors,and short-board factors.Then we compared and analyzed the status quo and development trend of water resources security of Hunan province from longitudinal(interannual)and lateral(index-based)perspectives.The results indicated:(1)The water resources security system of Hunan province was in a somewhat unsafe state in 2011,and was in a somewhat safe state in 2015,and was in a critically safe state in the other years.The water resources security of Hunan province during 2007-2015 was in a severe situation in the earlier stage and it eased up in the later stage.(2)We drew a short-board factors diagram of water resources security of Hunan province,and found that the main short-board factors were severe flood control situation,large amounts of waste water and organic pollutants emissions,and large consumption of water for industrial,agricultural,and domestic use.