基于模糊聚类循环迭代模型的陕西省农业干旱风险评估与区划

Assessment and zoning of agriculture drought risk based on fuzzy clustering iterative model in Shaanxi

为了加强陕西省农业干旱风险评估和应急管理能力,以10个地级市为研究对象,选择表征农业干旱风险的危害性、暴露性、脆弱性和抗旱能力等方面的17个代表性指标,建立了具有区域适用性的农业干旱风险评价指标体系;基于模糊聚类循环迭代方法构建了农业干旱风险评估模型,并结合GIS技术,对陕西省农业干旱风险进行评估和区划研究。结果表明:全省农业干旱风险具有明显的区域差异性和规律性,极严重-严重干旱风险区主要分布在榆林、渭南、商洛地区;中度干旱风险区主要分布在延安、宝鸡和咸阳地区;一般-轻度干旱风险区主要分布在铜川、安康、西安和汉中地区,农业干旱风险总体呈北部地区大于南部地区,关中东部地区高于西部地区的特点。依据研究结果,为管理部门决策制定提出了不同风险区抗旱减灾措施建议。

Agricultural drought risk of 10 cities were investigated to strengthen agricultural drought risk assessment and emergency management capacity in Shaanxi by a fuzzy clustering iterative model.The assessing system was constructed by selected 17 representative indexes(including hazard,exposure,vulnerability and resilience)of agricultural drought risk.Further more,GIS technology was used in agricultural drought risk zoning.The results showed that difference and regularity was obvious among the spatial distribution of agricultural drought risk in different regions.The regions exhibiting high to very high risk,were mainly distributed throughout Yulin in Northern Shaanxi,Weinan and Shangluo.The regions exhibiting moderate risk were mainly distributed throughout Yanan,Baoji and Xianyang.The regions exhibiting slight to low risk were mainly distributed in Tongchuan,Ankang,Xi’an and Hangzhong.Agricultural drought risk in northern Shaanxi was relatively stronger than that in the Southern,while drought risk in the eastern Guanzhong was higher than in the western.Finally,adaptive measures and suggestions were proposed according to the respective characteristics of drought risk regions.The findings could provide a reference for administrative department to make a decision on drought mitigation.