1986-2015年华北平原农业气象灾害的变化特征

Characteristics of agricultural meteorological disasters in North China from 1986 to 2015

根据华北平原1986-2015年的受灾、成灾和绝收面积等统计数据,分析了河北省、河南省和山东省农业气象灾害损失率以及灾害波动性、灾害等级的变化特征。总体上看,近30年河北省、河南省和山东省的农业气象灾害呈下降趋势,平均总损失率分别为7.5%～16.4%、5.6%～12.3%、6.2%～13.9%。各省灾害损失率由大到小分别为:河北省干旱>风雹>洪涝>低温,河南省和山东省干旱>洪涝>风雹>低温。干旱仍是华北平原最严重的灾害,但各省的干旱灾害呈下降趋势,河北干旱最严重,占总损失率的64.2%。河南和山东的洪涝呈先增后减的趋势,河北呈下降趋势。河北和山东的风雹呈下降趋势,河南呈先增后减的趋势。河南和山东的低温呈先增后减的趋势,河北呈增加趋势;河南最严重,占5.2%。各省洪涝、低温偶发性强,其中河南的洪涝波动性最大,山东的低温波动性最大;各省干旱、风雹为常态灾害,其中河北的干旱、风雹波动性最小。四类灾害等级划分结果表明干旱和风雹为常态性灾害,年际波动小,对农业生产的影响较大;而洪涝和低温的影响相比较小,但偶发性强,致灾强度大。

Based on statistical data from provinces,Hebei,Henan and Shandong during 1986 to 2015,loss rate,fluctuation and grade of agro-meteorological disasters were analyzed.Generally,agro-meteorological disasters in Hebei,Henan and Shandong showed a decreasing trend in the past 30 years,with an average composite loss rate of 7.5%~16.4%,5.6%~12.3%and 6.2%~13.9%,respectively.The disaster loss rate in Hebei Province ordered as drought>hail>flood>low temperature.But the disaster loss rate in Henan Province and Shandong Province ordered as drought>flood>hail>low temperature.Drought was still the most serious disaster in the Northern China Plain,but drought in the provinces showed a downward trend.Hebei was the most serious,occupying 64.2%of the comprehensive loss rate.Flood in Henan and Shandong showed the trend of increasing first and then decreasing,while Hebei was in a declining trend.Wind and hail in Hebei and Shandong was in a declining trend,with Henan increasing first and then decreasing;Hebei was the most serious,occupying 19.8%.Low temperature in Henan and Shandong showed the trend of increasing first and then decreasing,while Hebei was increasing.Henan was the most serious,occupying 5.2%.Flood and low-temperature occured occasionally,among which flood in Henan was the most fluctuant and low-temperature in Shandong was the most fluctuant.Drought and wind hail were the normal disasters,among which the drought and hail in Hebei were the least fluctuant.The results showed that drought and hail were normal disasters,and the annual fluctuation was small,which had a great impact on agricultural production.But the effects of flood and low temperature were relatively small,with great annual variability and strong intensity.