中国水资源-能源-粮食耦合系统安全评价及空间关联分析

Security evaluation and spatial correlation pattern analysis of water resources-energy-food nexus coupling system in China

采用Logistic曲线、耦合协调度模型和探索性空间数据分析等方法,对中国水资源-能源-粮食耦合系统进行安全评价及空间关联分析。结果表明:(1)随着经济的发展,中国多数省份水资源安全指数、能源安全指数和粮食安全指数呈上升的趋势;(2)中国水资源-能源-粮食耦合系统安全系数在2001—2015年多数省份呈上升趋势,而几个资源大省如河北、河南、山东、陕西等地耦合安全程度呈现波动或者下降的趋势;(3)从全局空间分异来看,中国各地区水资源-能源-粮食耦合系统安全性存在着空间集聚现象;从局部空间分异来看,空间正相关模式(低低和高高集聚)所占比例很大,低低集聚主要集中在西部和中部欠发达地区,而高高集聚主要分布在东部地区,在空间分布上比较稳定。

A safety evaluation and spatial correlation analysis of China s water resources-energy-food nexus coupling system were made by using Logistic curve,coupling coordination model and exploratory spatial data analysis.The results show that 1)With the development of the economy,the index of water resources security,energy security and food security of most provinces in China are on the rise;2)China s water resources-energy-food nexus coupling security coefficient was on the rise in most provinces of China from 2001 to 2015.However,the coupling security degree of several major resources provinces such as Hebei,Henan,Shandong and Shaanxi show the trend of fluctuation or decline;3)From the aspect of global spatial difference,water-energy-food nexus coupling security in various regions of China presents characteristics of positive spatial autocorrelation;From the aspect of local spatial difference,the regions with LL(low-low)or HH(high-high)correlation pattern have a large percentage in the 30 provinces(regions).The regions with LL correlation pattern are mainly concentrated in the underdeveloped areas in the west and central regions of China,while regions with HH correlation pattern are mainly distributed in the eastern region of China.The spatial distribution in these years is steady.