塔里木河生态水流情势分析及其适应性利用

Analysis of ecological water regime in Tarim River and its adaptive utilization

综合分析了外界干扰下的塔里木河流域生态水流情势,采用组合回归模型建立了适应生态变化的水流利用关系,修正了水文-生态响应关系和生态水流估算结果,进一步讨论了适应生态过程的水流情势利用策略。结果表明:自20世纪60年代以来,塔里木河源流与干流水流情势变化不一致,源流来水保证率递减,源流区间耗水量呈增加趋势。相比ARMA(auto-regressive and moving average)模型,基于不同利用方式的生态水流组合回归模型模拟效果较好,可作为参考性预报;结合生态水流预测方程,制定了适应生态的水量调度对策。

Based on the comprehensive analysis of the ecological water regime in the Tarim River Basin under external disturbance,a combined regression model was used to establish the flow utilization relationship adapted to the ecological changes.The hydrological-ecological response relationship and the results of ecological flow estimation were revised and the utilization strategy of water regime to adapt to the ecological process was discussed.The results show that since the 1960s,the flow regime of the Tarim River source and main stream has changed inconsistently,the guaranteed rate of the source incoming water is decreasing,and the water consumption in the source region is increasing.Compared with ARMA(auto-regressive and moving average)model,the combined regression model of ecological flow based on different utilization modes has better simulation effect and can be used as a reference forecast.Combined with the prediction equation of ecological flow,the water dispatching strategy suitable for ecology is worked out.