国家科技创新能力时空差异性评价——中国与全球十国对比分析

Research on Temporal and Spatial Differences' Evaluation of National Science & Technology Innovation Ability——Based on the Comparative Analysis between China and other Ten Countries in the World

科技创新规模扩张和科技创新效率提升是增强国家科技创新能力的两条关键途径。基于现有研究鲜有结合科技创新规模和科技创新效率开展国家科技创新能力评价的现状,采用因子分析法,系统筛选国家科技创新规模影响因素,并结合科技创新效率影响因素,完善国家科技创新能力评价指标体系,通过构建DEA-Malmquist指数模型,评价不同时期国家科技创新效率变化指数,以及中国与全球10个国家科技创新能力的时空差异性。研究表明,R&D投入强度、R&D研究人员、专利申请量、科技期刊文章数、高科技产品出口额占制成品出口总额的百分比、科技创新效率是影响国家科技创新能力的关键指标;1991-2014年中国科技创新能力水平呈指数增长态势,有力提升了国家科技实力;全球10个国家科技创新能力水平除日本出现一定波动外,其余九国整体呈小幅递增态势。

The scale expansion and the efficiency improvement of science and technology innovation are two key ways to enhance a country's science and technology innovation ability.Few scholars evaluate national science&technology innovation ability combined with two factors,such as the scale and the efficiency of science and technology innovation.Therefore,the paper ensures the scale indicators of science and technology innovation based on the factor analysis method.And combined with the efficiency indicators of science and technology innovation,the evaluation indicator system of science and technology innovation is improved.Then,the DEA-Malmquist model is given,to evaluate the changing of the efficiency index of science and technology innovation among different periods,and evaluate temporal and spatial differences of science and technology innovation ability between China and other ten countries in 1991-2014,and ensures the changing of influenced factors of science and technology innovation ability and the decomposition analysis of the efficiency factors.The evaluation results show that,the intensity of science&technology investment,R&D researchers,patent applications,the number of scientific journals,the high tech exports and the efficiency of science and technology innovation are the key influence factor of science and technology innovation ability.The ability index of China's science&technology innovation has increased exponentially in the 23 years,ranking ninth of 11 countries in 1991-1992 to ranking first of 11 countries in 2013-2014,to contribute to technological progress and scientific and technological strength in China.The ability index of science and technology innovation in global ten countries was relatively stable.Japan has seen a relatively large decline after a slight increase,and the other nine countries all presented a small incremental trend.