基于空间计量模型的新疆城镇密度时空变化特征分析

Spatial and Temporal Variation Analyses of the Urban Density Based on Spatial Econometrics Model in Xinjiang

在定量分析城镇密度的基础上,借助ArcGIS,GEODA和GWR4等空间分析工具,分析2004—2015年新疆城镇密度的空间变化特征及其原因和城镇之间的空间依赖性以及空间异质性.结果表明:2004—2015年,虽然城镇综合密度逐年上升,但总体分布变化不大,其中塔城市由中密度城市变为高密度城市,阿克陶县和托克逊县由低密度变为中密度城镇,鄯善县和木垒哈萨克自治县则由中密度降为低密度城镇.综合来看,热点城镇略有增加,冷点城镇基本保持稳定,这与新疆经济发展较为缓慢有相应的联系,南疆边缘县市经济落后,交通不便,使其增长缓慢,与热点城镇形成巨大差距.

By using ArcGIS,GEODA and GWR4 softwares,we performed quantitative analyses on the urban density,focusing on the analysis of cities and towns with the space variation in the density,and analyzed the reasons behind such changes in Xinjiang from the year of 2004 to 2015.Analyses of the spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity among the towns were also carried out.Our results showed that the urban comprehensive density has been rising monotonically since 2004,but the overall distribution has changed little.City Tacheng was upgraded from the medium density city to a high density city level,Aketao and Tuokexun counties each went up from a low density town to a medium density town level,and Shanshan and Mulei counties were nevertheless downgraded from a medium density town to a low density town level.Overall,during the studied period,hotspot towns enjoyed a slight increase and other towns basically remained stable.The main reason may be the relatively slower economic development in Xinjiang.The backward economy of Nanjiang marginal counties and the transportation inconvenience make its growth become slower than other parts of Xinjiang,and generating the large gap between hotspot towns and other areas.