世界金融危机之后高铁建设与中国经济持续发展

High-speed Rail Construction and China's Sustainable Economic Growth in the Aftermath of the World Financial Crisis

2008年世界金融危机对全球各大经济体产生了巨大且深刻的影响,十年以后的今天,世界地缘经济政治发生了戏剧性变化。原来西方七大经济体主宰世界发展的格局,正在被以美国和中国为主导的G2所替代。在西方世界里,只有美国破除了危机魔咒并成为当今最有活力的发达经济体,而欧盟、日本、南美诸国却受到致命打击并失去了十年的发展。在金砖国家中,只有中国和印度经受住了危机的冲击而继续高速发展,南非、巴西、俄罗斯失去了危机前的增长活力。印度能够维持高的增长率在于其基础比较弱,危机前国内经济没有过多依赖外部推动,特别是过度依赖深受打击的西方经济体。中国在后危机时期,特别是2011年以后的对外贸易以及外资流入等方面都受到了世界经济衰退的严重影响。然而,2008年以后四万亿人民币的经济刺激,特别是高速铁路的迅猛发展,不仅为中国提供了一个可以维系中高速经济增长的空间,"四纵四横"高铁网络的完美收工,"八纵八横"高铁网络的全面开建,成为推动中国经济持续发展的利器,助推中国经济奇迹的辉煌。

The world financial crisis in 2008 has had a profound impact on the world major economies.Ten years after the crisis,the world geo-political structure has been dramatically transformed.The global economic order that used to be dominated by G7 has been gradually replaced by the dominance of G2,i.e.,the US and China.In the West,only the US has fully recovered from the crisis to be a strong and dynamic developed economy,whereas the EU,Japan and the Latin American countries had lost one decade of real growth.Among the BRIC economies,only India and China have withstood the crisis shock and maintained a high speed of growth,but South Africa,Russia and Brazil have lost their growth dynamics prevailing before the crisis.India has done well because it started from a low level of development and its economy was not fully integrated with the western economies which were highly infected by the crisis.In the aftermath of the crisis,especially from 2011 onward,the growth of foreign trade and the inflow of foreign direct investment have slowed down sharply in China.However,its 4 trillion yuan stimulus packaged implemented after 2008,and the rapid development of high-speed rail(HSR)had helped the country to sustain its steady growth.The“four vertical and four horizontal”HSR network has been built,and the“eight vertical and eight horizontal”HSR network is under construction.HSR has become and will continue to be a powerful driver for China to maintain its growth momentum.This paper reviews China’s successful economic development experiences in the past four decades,analyzes the challenges and opportunities faced by the country in the aftermath of the crisis,and explains why and how HSR is important for its sustainable economic growth in New Era.