房价冲击系统性风险的机理、影响及防范:一个文献综述

The Mechanism,Impact and Precaution of Systemic Risks Shocked by Housing Price:A Literature Review

一旦房价持续上升并出现非理性繁荣后大幅下降引发系统性金融风险便有可能演化为大规模经济金融危机。针对我国近年来房价冲击系统性风险不断加大的现实,文章遵循"识别风险来源→梳理传导路径→分析经济影响→测度风险水平→预警风险动态→防范危机发生"的逻辑思路,分别从房价冲击系统性风险的生成和传导机理、经济影响效应以及如何测度和预警房价冲击系统性风险等方面综述了国内外的最新研究动态,发现现有文献在房价冲击系统性风险的理论和实证研究方面涌现了一大批创新性成果,但不足是缺乏多角度分析房价冲击系统性风险的生成传导机理及经济效应的研究成果,风险测度和预警方法也需要改进,今后应在房价冲击系统性风险的理论分析、实证检验以及测度和预警方法的完善等方面进一步开展研究。

Once the housing price rises continuously and declines sharply after irrational prosperity,the systemic financial risks are likely to evolve into the large-scale economic and financial crisis.In view of the fact that the systemic risks shocked by housing price have been increasing in China in recent years,this paper summarizes the latest research trends at home and abroad from the perspectives of the generation and transmission mechanism,the economic effects,the measurement and the early warning of systemic risks shocked by housing price respectively,following the logic of“identifying risk sources→combing transmission path→analyzing economic impact→measuring risk level→warning risk dynamics→preventing crisis”.The paper finds that a large number of innovative achievements have emerged on the theoretical and empirical research on the systemic risks shocked by housing price,but the lack of multi angle analysis of the generation and transmission mechanism and the economic effects of the systematic risks of housing price impact.The risk measurement and the early warning methods also need to be improved.The further research should be conducted on the theoretical analysis,the empirical test and the improvement of measurement and early warning methods.