安徽省城镇职工基本养老保险运行风险研究

Research on the Operational Risk of Basic Pension Insurance for Urban Workers in Anhui Province

文章以安徽省为研究对象,分析新常态背景下经济增速放缓和人口老龄化程度加深对城镇职工基本养老保险关键参数和收支缺口的影响,并通过构建制度自平衡度、财政可支持度和综合安全度指标,从三个层次对城镇职工基本养老保险的运行风险进行了测度和分析。研究发现,新常态特征对安徽省城镇职工基本养老保险运行产生了实质性不利影响。具体而言:新常态背景下,安徽省城镇职工基本养老保险将会在2023年出现收不抵支,开始不能实现制度的收支自平衡;测算期内,安徽省可用于养老金支出的财政支出占养老金总支出的比例介于14. 55%～6. 80%之间,财政难以承担弥补养老保险缺口之重;城镇职工基本养老保险综合安全度从2024年开始小于1,必须依赖除财政补贴之外的其他资源的支持,方能维持制度的持续运转。

Taking Anhui province as the research object,this paper analyzes the impacts of the economic slowdown and the deepening of aging population degree on the key parameters of basic pension insurance for urban workers and the gap between income and expenditure under the background of the new normal.Moreover,by constructing the index of self balance,financial supportability and safety comprehensive degree,the paper measures and analyzes the operational risk of basic pension insurance for urban workers from the three levels.The study finds that the new normal characteristics have a substantial negative impact on the operation of basic pension insurance for urban workers in Anhui province.Specifically,under the background of the new normal,the gap of basic pension insurance for urban workers in Anhui province will appear in 2023,and it can not realize the balance of revenue and expenditure of the system;In the calculation period,the proportion of financial expenditure used for pension expenditure to the total pension expenditure is between 14.55%~6.80%in Anhui province,which means the public finance is difficult to make up for the gap of pension insurance;The comprehensive safety degree of urban workers basic endowment insurance will be less than 1 since 2024,therefore,more external resources other than financial subsidies must be supported in order to maintain the continuous operation of the system.