预期视角下房价波动与消费的协整关系研究

Research on the Co-integration Relationship between Housing Price Fluctuation and Consumption from the Perspective of Expectation

根据不同类型消费者行为的差异,文章构建出预期视角下房价与消费关系的理论基础模型以确定两者的协整关系,并建立长期均衡动态面板误差修正模型,实证表明:预期房价上涨抬高居民住房投资品属性权重,这是阻碍财富效应发挥的主要原因。全国层面:房价上涨乐观预期下,居民出现"短视行为",减弱"资产效应",加强"财富重新分配效应"、"预防性储蓄动机效应"等挤出效应,导致无论短期还是长期,房价均抑制居民消费;地区层面:地区经济发展差异引起房价地区间的空间效应及领先滞后关系,导致在短期内,房价对消费的影响均是挤出效应,地区差异体现在强度上,而长期差异在影响方向上也有体现,东中部地区为挤出效应,西部地区为财富效应。

According to the differences of different types of consumer behaviors,this paper constructs a theoretical model of the relationship between housing price and consumption from the perspective of expectation to determine the co-integration relationship between them,and further builds a long-term equilibrium dynamic panel error correction model.The empirical results show that the expected rise of housing price makes residents give a higher weight of housing investment,which is the main reason to hinder the property wealth effect.At the national level:under the optimistic expectation of the rise of housing price,residents appear“short-sighted behavior”,weaken“asset effect”,strengthen“wealth redistribution effect”and“precautionary savings motive effect”and other crowding-out effects,which result in the housing price restraining residents consumption both in short-term and in long-term.At the regional level,regional economic development differences bring about the spatial effect and the lead-lag relationship of housing prices.In the short term,the impact of housing price on consumption is crowding-out effect,regional differences are reflected in intensity,whereas long-term differences are also reflected in the direction of impact.The eastern and central regions are crowding-out effects,and the western region is wealth effect.