水运投资对工业发展的门槛特征及解释研究

Research into Threshold Characteristics and Explanation of Water Transportation Investment to Industrial Development

水运作为工业化中后期的一种重要运输方式,与工业经济发展密切相关。选取江苏省2000—2016年13个地市的面板数据,运用门槛模型和空间杜宾模型研究水运投资和工业经济间的关系。研究结果表明:水运投资对工业增加值表现出显著的双重门槛效应,分别于2006年、2011年通过了门槛临界点;水运投资表现出明显的空间溢出特征,溢出效应在2006年、2011年门槛发生前后的增加值略小于门槛前后水运投资弹性系数变化值,表明溢出效应是门槛特征发生的主要原因,水运投资主要通过间接效应来影响地区间的工业发展水平。

As a kind of vital way of transportation in mid-to-late industrialization,water transportation is closely related to the development of industrial economy.Based on the panel data of 13 cities in Jiangsu province from 2000 to 2016,the study uses threshold model to do a research into the relationship between water transportation investment and industrial output,and makes a comparison between water transportation investment average value and water transport investment threshold value in Jiangsu province.The spatial spillover effect is further used to explain the threshold characteristics.The results show that there is a significant double threshold effect on industrial output.The average value of water transport investment capital stock in 2006 and 2011 is the closest to the water transport investment threshold.Take 2006 and 2011 as the demarcation point,it is found that the water transport investment has a positive spatial spillover effect on the industrial economy of Jiangsu province.The growth of the added value of elasticity of the spillover effects is slightly smaller than that of the threshold model of elastic coefficient values change.Therefore,the water transport investment mainly has impact on the industrial development level among regions through the indirect effect.