摘要
我国北方地区冬季建筑采暖用能巨大,为提升建筑外围护结构热工性能而进行的节能改造已陆续开展,并且规模逐步扩大。本文依据我国建筑节能发展进程,结合数理统计方法,利用少量建筑供暖能耗数据生成统计样本,进而回归生成反映区域建筑热负荷的概率密度函数。在此基础上,采用数值模拟方法完成某供热系统覆盖区域内既有建筑热负荷预测,为区域内供热系统改造、规划以及热源选择等提供科学的数据支持。研究成果对城市供热规划以及供热系统运行管理都有着十分重要的意义。
The energy consumption of building heat-supply system is huge in North China.To improve the thermal performance of building envelope,energy saving reconstruction has been carried out.Reconstruction scale is gradually expanded.According to the development process of building energy conservation,combining with mathematical statistics method,statistical samples can be obtained by a small amount of building heating energy consumption data.Then,regression method is used to generate probability density function of regional building heat-supply loads.According to numerical simulation method,existing building heat-supply loads in the coverage area can be forecasted by the probability density function.The forecasting results can provide scientific data support for regional planning and reformation of heat-supply systems,which has a very important significance in city heating planning and operational management.
作者
刘永鑫
张宇
Liu Yongxin;Zhang Yu(School of Architecture,Harbin Institute of Technology;Key Laboratory of Cold Region Urban and Rural Human Settlement Environment Science and Technology,Ministry of Industry and Information Technology)
出处
《区域供热》
2018年第5期97-102,共6页
District Heating
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(51678177)
关键词
建筑热负荷
节能改造
负荷预测
供热规划
既有建筑
Building heat load
Energy saving reconstruction
Load forecasting
Heating planning
Existing building
