自由贸易试验区促进了区域经济增长吗?——基于沪津闽粤四大自贸区的实证研究

Does the PFTZ Promote the Regional Economic Growth?——An Empirical Study Based on Shanghai,Tianjin,Fujian & Guangdong

衡量自由贸易试验区的政策试验效果对于自由贸易试验区的复制与推广具有重要的意义,文章使用Hsiao等(2012)提出的一种基于面板数据衡量政策效应的新方法,构建了上海、天津、福建和广东季度经济增长率的"反事实"路径,创新性地定量评估了设立沪津闽粤四大自贸区的区域经济增长效应。研究发现:截至2017年第1季度第三批自贸区扩容,上海自贸区的设立平均每个季度为上海市GDP增长率贡献了约2. 27个百分点。其中扩区之前平均每个季度贡献了约0. 897个百分点,扩区后平均每个季度贡献了约3. 03个百分点,表明更大范围的开放对上海市的经济增长有更加明显的促进作用;而天津、福建和广东自贸区的设立平均每个季度分别为天津市、福建省和广东省的GDP增长率贡献了约3. 55、0. 70和1. 18个百分点,所有这些均表明中国实施的自由贸易试验区政策对实施地的区域经济增长具有积极的促进作用。

It is of great significance for the replication and promotion of China Pilot Free Trade Zone(PFTZ)to measure the effect of its policy test.This paper,applying a new method based on the panel data to measure the policy effect proposed by Hsiao et al.(2012),constructs the“counter-factual”path of the quarterly economic growth rate in Shanghai,Tianjin,Fujian and Guangdong,and initially evaluates the regional economic growth effect of establishing the four major PFTZs.The study shows that:With the third batch of PFTZ expansion until the first quarter of 2017,on average,the establishment of Shanghai PFTZ has contributed about 2.27 percent to Shanghai s GDP growth rate each quarter,and about 0.897 percent each quarter before the expansion,about 3.03 percent each quarter after the expansion,which indicates that a wider opening has a more significant role in promoting economic growth in Shanghai;Whereas the establishment of Tianjin,Fujian and Guangdong PFTZs,on average,has contributed about 3.55,0.70 and 1.18 percent to each region s GDP growth respectively in every season.All these show that China s PFTZ policy has a positive effect on promoting regional economic growth in the implementing regions.