中国林业现代化水平的地区差异及动态演进研究

Research on Regional Differences and Dynamic Evolution of China's Forestry Modernization Level

基于主成分分析方法,测算了2000—2015年中国30个省域的林业现代化水平指数,并利用kernel密度函数估计了东部、中部、西部地区林业现代化水平动态演进过程。结果表明:2000—2015年,中国省域林业现代化水平存在明显差异,其中四川省林业现代化水平位居首位,黑龙江省林业现代化水平次之,吉林、浙江、广西等地区的林业现代水平依次减弱;林业现代化水平动态演进特征为东部地区整体差异逐渐变大而区域内部逐渐演变成两级分化,中部地区整体差异逐渐变小而区域内部逐渐演变成三级分化再到两级分化,西部地区整体差异先变小后变大而区域内部分散特征显著。因此,提出加大政府投入力度、构建林业信息化发展平台和积极发展林业产业新业态等建议。

⑴Background--The development of forestry modernization is a dynamic and evolving historical process,and the promotion of forestry modernization is also a long-term process,which requires unremitting efforts to make the development level of forestry modernization move towards a higher level.Therefore,it is particularly important to identify the dynamic level of China s forestry modernization.⑵Methods--Based on the construction of the forestry modernization level index system,the principal component analysis method was used to measure the forestry modernization level of 30 provinces in China(Tibet data is missing,so it s excluded),and kernel density function was used to estimate the dynamic evolution law of forestry modernization level in different regions.The data are from China Forestry Statistics Yearbook and China Statistics Yearbook from 2000 to 2016,and the indexes of different units are standardized without dimension.⑶Results--①There are obvious differences in the level of forestry modernization in different provinces and regions in China,among which Sichuan province ranks the first in the level of forestry modernization,the forestry modernization level in Heilongjiang Province takes second place,and the forestry modernization level in Jilin,Zhejiang and Guangxi areas decreases in turn.②There are obvious differences in the law of dynamic evolution of forestry modernization level among the eastern,central and Western regions.The evolution characteristics of forestry modernization level in the eastern region are that the difference is gradually becoming larger and the regional differentiation gradually evolves into two-level differentiation;the dynamic evolution characteristics of forestry modernization level in the central region are that the difference is gradually becoming smaller and the regional differentiation gradually evolves into three-level differentiation;the dynamic evolution characteristics of forestry modernization level in the western region are that the difference first becomes smaller,then becomes larger,and the water differentiation characteristics of forestry modernization in the western region were remarkable.⑷Conclusions and Discussions--There are obvious differences in the level of forestry modernization in China s 30 provinces.The areas with higher levels of forestry modernization are concentrated in the eastern region,while the level of forestry modernization in the western provinces is mostly at a lower level.The evolution of forestry modernization level in the eastern region has gradually become larger,and regional differentiation has gradually evolved into two-level differentiation.The evolution of forestry modernization level in the central region has gradually become smaller,regional differentiation has gradually evolved into three-level differentiation.It becomes smaller first and then becomes larger and has distinct differentiation characteristics.①Local governments should increase investment in forestry development,especially in areas with low level of forestry modernization.The government can improve the output level of forestry by raising the education level of forestry practitioners and increasing the investment in forestry production.②Make full use of advanced science and technology to build an information development platform for forestry.For example,it is suggested to adopt the new development mode of“Internet+forestry”and to support by the new generation of information technology so as to solve the problem of unfair network,lack of timely access to information and difficult product sales faced by forestry development.Also,using Internet technology to transform the forestry production primarily could mainly provide ecological services for society so as to effectively promote the development of forestry modernization.