新时代的俄美关系

The Russia-US Relations in the New Era

乌克兰危机之后,美俄明确将对方视为竞争对手。目前美俄关系的疏远与冷战时期的战略对抗已有本质不同,因为国际格局已从两极向多极转变。从历史来看,美俄关系大部分时间也是竞争大于合作,美俄竞争不同于其他地区大国之间的竞争,是根植于国家认同的安全观和例外主义的根本矛盾。因此,两国关系短期内很难得到改善。从长期来看,经济活力从欧洲向东亚的转移、先进科学技术的发展、相互依赖程度的加深以及经济技术不平衡发展带来的全球权力结构重新配置等全球主流趋势,以及各自国内的发展,可能使两国的大战略不会发生太大变化,但地缘政治挑战、世界秩序、价值观三个因素的变化是否能为美俄关系的改善带来契机,很难得出明确的答案。

After the Ukrainian crisis,the U.S.and Russia have clearly taken each other as competitors.At present,the international context and the nature of relations are radically different.The world is no longer bipolar as it was during the Cold War.Rather,the contours of an inchoate multipolar system are emerging.In the burden of history,the relations defined more by competition than cooperation.The competitive nature of relations is deep and endurable,which exceeds that of other great powers in the world.Different approaches to the fundamental questions of national security and prosperity,incompatible value systems embedded in competing forms of exceptionalism and universalism,which cut to the core of national security and identity,have had greater influence.For near term,the status of relations is difficult to improve.The long run,out to mid-century,Four key global trends such as the shift of economic dynamism from Europe to East Asia,the advancement of technology,the deepening of interdependence,and a new global distribution of power led by uneven economic and technological advance,as well as potential power and political will of domestic development,will change the long-standing grand strategies of the two countries little.However,whether the changes in geopolitical challenges,world order and values in the future will bring opportunities for the improvement of US-Russia relations,and a leaders with the requisite imagination will emerge remains to be seen.