“一带一路”金融基础设施合作与人民币国际化

Financial Infrastructure Cooperation under Belt and Road Initiative and RMB Internationalization

本文基于货币搜寻模型考察了"一带一路"框架下金融基础设施合作可能对于人民币国际化产生的影响。我们发现,改善东道国通用型金融基础设施对提高人民币可接受性的作用并不确定,甚至可能带来负面效果。当存在多个相互联通的人民币离岸市场时,提高某个区域的金融基础设施质量在促进人民币使用方面兼具"贸易创造"效应和区域间的"贸易转移"效应。当后者的规模足够大时,将可能改变人民币离岸市场的区域分布结构,对其他地区的人民币国际化进程产生不利影响。

Based on a search-and-matching model of monetary exchange,this article explores the effects of financial infrastructure cooperation under the B&R and RMB internationalization.It finds that the efforts to improve the general-purpose financial infrastructure in underdeveloped countries have an ambiguous effect on the acceptability of RMB in these regions.Moreover,in the case that RMB is inter-regionally mobile,the improvement of financial infrastructure in a region has both the“trade creation”effect and“trade diversion”effect.When the latter is stronger than the former,financial infrastructure cooperation can trigger a relocation of RMB business among the regions.