美对华贸易战略演化进程与贸易新政研究——以贸易税赋为例

Study On the Characteristics and New Trends of US Trade Strategy towards China——Take Trade Taxes as an Example

特朗普政府执政以来,试图通过逆全球化的方式掌控全球贸易新规则的制定主导权,尤其在对华贸易政策方面存在"美国优先"的典型守成主义倾向。本文在分析自20世纪70年代末期以来中美战略性贸易合作政策的演化特征与特朗普政府对华贸易新政的基础上,通过GTAP模型对中美贸易税赋政策进行了模拟分析。实证模拟表明:中美若实施以邻为壑的贸易税赋政策,对两国贸易福利将产生负面影响;而中美实施互利的贸易税赋合作政策,则有利于增进两国的贸易福利。

The Trump administration is trying to grab control of new global trade rules by way of reversing globalization and pursuing the“American priority”strategy towards China.This paper firstly analyses the evolution of Sino-US trade policy since the late 1970s,expounds the Trump administration’s trade policy towards China,and then conducts a simulation analysis of Sino-US trade tax policies based on the GTAP model.Empirical simulation shows that the implementation of a beggar-the-neighbor tax policy in the Sino-US trade will have a negative impact on the bilateral welfare,while the implementation of a mutually beneficial policy is conducive to enhancing bilateral trade and welfare.