上海市建设用地碳排放效应分析

Analysis of carbon emissions effect of construction land in Shanghai

以2001—2015年为时间序列,对上海市建设用地的碳排放进行测算。文章采用Kaya恒等式和对数平均D氏指数(logarithmic mean Divisia inde,LMDI)因素分解模型,分析各因素对建设用地碳排放效应;运用经济学边际理论,构造上海市能源强度边际碳排放模型,测算边际碳排放变化率和边际碳排放量。结果表明:上海市建设用地碳排放量从2001年的2 272.2×104 t增长至2015年的3 697.8×104 t,年平均增长率为3.612%;能源强度的减少是影响上海市碳排放下降的主要因素;边际碳排放变化率不规律,能源强度变化对上海市的碳排放影响极限时刻不存在,能源强度与碳排放关系呈三次幂正相关(拟合曲线特征)。

Carbon emissions of construction land in Shanghai from 2001 to 2015 were calculated.The effect of energy structure,energy intensity,economic level and population factors on carbon emissions of construction land was analyzed by Kaya identity and logarithmic mean Divisia index(LMDI)factor decomposition model.The marginal carbon emissions model of energy intensity in Shanghai was constructed by using the marginal theory of economics,and the marginal carbon emissions change rate and the marginal carbon emissions were calculated.The results show that the carbon emissions of construction land in Shanghai increase from 2 272.2×10 4 t in 2001 to 3 697.8×10 4 t in 2015 with an average annual growth rate of 3.612%;the decrease of energy intensity is the main factor that influences the decrease of carbon emissions in Shanghai;the marginal carbon emissions change rate is irregular;the limit moment of the impact of energy intensity change on carbon emissions in Shanghai is non-existent;the relationship between energy intensity and carbon emissions has three power positive correlation(characteristic of fitting curve).