基于LMDI法的中国有色金属行业能源消费驱动因素分析

Analysis of Energy Consumption Driving Factors in China's Non-ferrous Metal Industry Based on Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Method

针对节能减排这一有色金属行业实现可持续发展的关键,分析1994—2015年中国有色金属行业能源消费情况,并基于对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)法进行驱动因素分解;结合行业发展"十三五"规划目标,分析相应的能源消费规模、速度等各因素的贡献,并提出相应的对策和建议。结果表明:21年间行业产值、能源消费持续增长,年均增长15. 65%和8. 76%;能源强度先增后减,年均减少5. 96%;人均产出的提升是行业能源消费增长的最大正向驱动因素;就业规模作用次之,但作用不稳定;能源结构起微弱的正向作用,能源强度的下降是最大抑制因素。

Aiming at the key to sustainable development of non-ferrous metal industry of energy conservation and emission reduction,the energy consumption of non-ferrous metal industry in China from 1994 to 2015 was analyzed,and the driving factor decomposition was carried on based on logarithmic mean Divisia index(LMDI)model.According to the target of the 13th Five-Year Plan of the industry,contributions of various factors including corresponding energy consumption scale and speed were analyzed,and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions were put forward.The results show that the industry output and energy consumption keep secular growth with annual growth of 15.65%and 8.76%in last 21 years.The energy intensity rises first and then decreases with an average annual decrease of 5.96%.The increase of per capita output is the biggest positive driving factor for the growth of energy consumption in industry.The effect of employment is secondary,but the role is not stable.The energy structure has a weak positive effect,and the decline of energy intensity is the biggest inhibitor.