基于ESDA和Markov的土地利用时空格局演变

The temporal and spatial patterns evolution of land use based on the ESDA and Markov

开展区域土地利用时空格局演变研究,掌握土地开发利用的现状和趋势,为开展土地利用结构优化方案评价探索有效的方法。本文以华池县土地利用总体规划(2010-2020)为研究对象,以规划调整完善时点(2014年底)为研究时点,运用探索性空间数据分析方法(ESDA)和马尔科夫链(Markov)研究土地利用时空格局演变趋势。研究结果表明:(1)华池县2009-2014年土地利用程度不断提高,2015-2020年呈现下降趋势;(2)华池县土地利用程度存在显著的正空间自相关性,空间集聚分布特征日趋明显;(3)华池县土地利用等级在较低利用级与中等利用级之间的演变频繁,其他利用级基本稳定。研究结论为:(1)在规划调整完善中,华池县需适度调整控制指标,优化土地利用结构布局;(2)将ESDA和Markov二者结合使用是开展土地利用结构优化方案评价的理想方法。

The purpose of this study is to carry out a research on the temporal and spatial patterns of land use,to grasp the status and trends of land development and utilization,and to explore effective methods for the evaluation of land use structure optimization.The exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA)and Markov models were used in this paper to study the temporal and spatial patterns of land use,taking the Land Use Planning(2010-2020)of Huachi County as the research object,with the end of 2014 as the time-point in which year the planning was adjusted perfectly.The results showed some details as followed:the land use degree in Huachi county was increasing continuously from 2009 to 2014,whereas a downward trend showed up since 2015 till 2020.There were observably positive spatial auto-correlation in the land use degree of Huachi County,and the spatial clustering distribution was becoming more and more obvious.The land use rank of Huachi County changed very frequently between the lower utilization level and the middle utilization level,while other levels basically maintained stable.The results show that the control indexes are needed to be adjusted appropriately,so does the land use structural layout in the planning adjustment of Huachi county,what's more,the combination of ESDA and Markov is an ideal method to evaluate the optimization scheme of the land use structure.