基于三角模糊数的露天矿山边坡失稳风险分析

Risk analysis of slope instability in open-pit mine based on triangular fuzzy number

针对边坡模糊系统,基于三角模糊数和事故树理论建立了边坡失稳事故树模型.选用表征方法对边坡失稳事故基本事件的发生概率进行表述,通过计算事故树的最小径集和基本事件模糊重要度,确定了边坡失稳事故影响因素的概率分布,得出影响露天矿山边坡失稳事故的关键因素:未及时进行边坡监测,防排水措施失效,大气降水影响,岩体发育有断层、裂隙带,台阶坡面角过大,未及时处置边坡风险区等;并据此提出针对性防治措施,为防治露天矿边坡失稳事故提供依据.

The influencing factors of the slope instability accident were analyzed and summarized in order to make a reasonable evaluation on the risk of slope instability in open-pit mines.In view of the slope fuzzy system,a tree model of landslide accident was established based on the triangle fuzzy number and the accident tree theory.The representation method was used to express the probability of the occurrence of the basic events of the slope instability accident.The minimum diameter set of the accident tree and the fuzzy importance of the basic event were calculated,and the probability distribution of the factors affecting the slope instability was obtained.The key factors affecting the instability of the slope in the open-pit mine are as follows:slope monitoring not in time;failure of waterproofing and drainage measures;influence of atmospheric precipitation;the rock mass developed with fault and fracture zone;big angle of step slope;and failure to deal with the slope risk area in time.On the basis of this,the countermeasures were put forward,providing theoretical reference for the prevention and control of slope instability in open-pit mines.