近60年荆州四季趋变特征及给作物生长 影响的对策

Temporal Change and Trend Analysis of the Four Seasons in Jingzhou During the Past 60 Years and the Countermeasures in the Crop Growth

根据荆州站1955—2017年逐日气温资料,在研究四季长度和起始时间变化特征的基础上,利用Mann-Kendall检验等方法对季节的时间变化趋势进行研究。结果表明,季节长度变化上,荆州夏季季长有极显著的增加趋势(P<0.01),秋、冬两季季长有极显著的缩短趋势(P<0.01);即夏季以延长为主,秋、冬季主要表现为缩短,而春季季长无明显变化。其中,夏季的延长趋势率最大(0.3725),冬季缩短的趋势率(-0.247)大于秋季缩短趋势率(-0.1559);季节起始日上,冬、秋两季起始日期有极显著的推后趋势(P<0.01),春、夏季则表现为极显著的提前趋势(P<0.01)。

According to the daily temperature data,the seasonal duration and beginning date for 1955-2017 at jingzhou station,the seasonal time change trend was studied by using the Mann-kendall test and other methods.The results show that the growth season in Jingzhou and summer prolonged significantly(P<0.01),while autumn and winter shortened significantly(P<0.01).The spring had no obvious change.The extension rate(0.3725)in summer was the largest one,the shortening rate(-0.247)in winter was greater than that in autumn(-0.1559).The seasonal beginning date delayed significantly in winter and autumn(P<0.01),while spring and summer were ahead of time significantly(P<0.01).