浙江省碳安全评价及其影响因素研究

Carbon Security Assessment and Its Influencing Factors in Zhejiang Province

[目的]研究浙江省碳足迹、碳承载力的测度及结构,分析其碳安全程度及影响因素,为发展低碳经济提供参考和依据。[方法]测度2000—2015年浙江省碳足迹和碳承载力,构建碳压力指数、碳足迹指数评价体系评价其碳安全程度;采用STIRPAT模型和岭回归方法对浙江省碳足迹的影响因素进行实证分析。[结果]浙江省碳足迹经历了先增加后稳定并略微下降的过程,碳承载力基本稳定;能源利用效率逐年提高,经济发展对能源的依赖程度降低;浙江省碳压力指数在1.35~4.19,碳足迹指数在0.21~0.59,碳足迹总体处中等以上水平;回归结果表明,人口、城镇化率、GDP、第二产业占比、原煤碳足迹占比是浙江省碳足迹的主要驱动因素。[结论]浙江省碳足迹较大,碳安全程度总体较低。为实现低碳经济目标,应通过控制人口数量,提高城镇化质量,发展低碳产业,促进高碳产业低碳化,推广使用清洁能源等措施减少碳足迹,同时增加城市绿化面积,保护森林以增加碳承载力。

[Objective]This paper aimed to study the measurement and structure of carbon footprint and carbon capacity in Zhejiang Province,to evaluate its carbon security and to analyze its influencing factors so as to provide reference and basis for the development of low-carbon economy.[Methods]We calculated the carbon footprint,carbon capacity from 2000 to 2015 in Zhejiang Province,constructed an evaluation system with respect to carbon pressure index and carbon footprint index and used it to evaluate the carbon security in Zhejiang Province.The STIRPAT model and ridge regresion methods were used to analyze the influencing factors of carbon footprint in Zhejiang Province.[Results]The carbon footprint of Zhejiang Province experienced a process of increasing firstly and then decreasing slightly,and its carbon capacity was basically stable.The efficiency of energy utilization increased year by year,and the dependence of economic development on it reduced.The carbon pressure index ranged from 1.35 to 4.19;the carbon footprint index ranged from 0.21 to 0.59,which meant that Zhejiang’s carbon footprint was above the average level in the world.Regression results showed that the drivers of carbon footprint in Zhejiang Province included population factors(population,urbanization rate),wealth factors(GDP),technical factors(secondary industry share,coal carbon footprint).[Conclusion]The level of carbon security in Zhejiang Province was relatively low.In order to achieve the goal of low-carbon economy,measures like controlling the population,improving the quality of urbanization,developing low-carbon industries,promoting the use of clean energy,protecting forests and increasing urban greening area,should be taken.