甘肃高速公路山区段路面温度特征及其预报模型

Variation Characteristics of Expressway Pavement Temperature and Forecast Model in Mountainous Area of Gansu

利用G30连霍高速甘肃段沿线麦积山隧道、乌鞘岭交通气象监测站的路面温度、气温、露点温度、相对湿度、风速、降水等逐时资料,统计分析了两站不同季节、不同海拔高度下路面温度与气温的差异与联系,讨论了路面温度与其他气象因子的相关关系,基于逐步线性回归方法建立路面温度统计模型,并对模型预报效果进行检验。结果表明:各个季节,甘肃山区高速公路路面温度和气温都是日出后快速升高,日落后逐渐下降,且路面温度的升、降幅度均快于气温。较低海拔站点的路面温度高于高海拔站点,但最高值出现时间、两站温差有所差异。其中,秋、冬季两站路面温差夜间大于白天,而春、夏季则昼夜相差不大。最低、最高路面温度统计模型的预报结果与实况变化趋势接近,但最高路面温度个别日期预报值与观测值偏差较大,在实际业务中应考虑各种实时气象条件及地形条件,对模型结果进行适当订正。

Based on the hourly meteorological observation data from Maiji Mountain Tunnel and Wushaoling road automatic weather stations in Gansu section of Lian-Huo expressway,including pavement temperature,relative humidity,air temperature,dew-point temperature,wind speed and rainfall from April 2015 to March 2016,the difference and relation between pavement temperature and air temperature in different seasons and altitudes were analyzed statistically,and the correlations between pavement temperature and other meteorological factors were discussed.And on this basis the statistical models of pavement temperature were established by using stepwise linear regression method,the forecasted effects of models were tested.The results show that the expressway pavement temperature and air temperature at Maiji Mountain Tunnel and Wushaoling stations with different altitudes had obvious diurnal change characteristics,they rose rapidly after sunrise and dropped gradually after sunset in different seasons,and the change rate of pavement temperature was faster than that of air temperature.However,the pavement temperature in low altitude was higher than that in high altitude,and the time of maximum pavement temperature and their differences with different altitudes were obviously different in four seasons.Their pavement temperature differences in the nighttime of autumn and winter were greater than those in the daytime,while those in the nighttime and daytime of spring and summer were approximate.The forecasted pavement temperature by models was close to the observation,but the deviations between forecasted and observed values of maximum pavement temperature in a few days were great.Therefore,the forecasted results by models should be appropriately revised with consideration of real-time meteorological conditions and topography in actual forecast business.