基于模糊综合评价法的浙江省高速公路暴雨灾害风险评估

Risk Division of Rainstorm Disasters on Expressway in Zhejiang Province Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

利用2006—2017年浙江省气象站点的降水数据、基础地理信息数据以及社会经济数据,考虑高速公路的自然地理环境特征,从危险性、暴露度、脆弱性3个方面出发,建立高速公路暴雨灾害风险评估指标集。通过Arc GIS技术,结合模糊综合评价法,建立暴雨灾害风险评估模型,形成浙江省高速公路暴雨灾害风险区划图。结果表明,浙东南沿海地区及西部山区境内的高速路段风险等级较高,浙北北部地区和中部盆地境内的高速路段风险较低。高风险路段主要分布在长深高速富阳段、京台高速开化段、诸永高速永嘉段、温丽高速温州段、温州绕城高速、甬台温高速台州段以及瑞安到苍南段、常台高速天台东段等路段。

Based on the precipitation observation data from meteorological stations in Zhejiang Province during 2006-2017 and combined with the geographic information and social and economic data,the risk assessment index sets were established on the basis of the analysis of hazard factors,vulnerability and exposure,considering the natural geographical environment characteristics of expressway.Risk assessment model was established by using methods of ArcGIS spatial technique and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,and finally the risk division map of rainstorm disasters on expressway in Zhejiang was performed.The results show that the higher level of rainstorm risk appeared in southeast coastal areas and west mountainous areas of Zhejiang,while the lower level of rainstorm risk on the expressway sections occurred in the north of northern Zhejiang and central basin area.The higher risk sections were mainly located in Chang-Shen expressway Fuyang section,Jing-Tai expressway Kaihua sections,Zhu-Yong expressway Yongjia sections,Wen-Li expressway Wenzhou sections,Wenzhou ring expressway,Yong-Tai-Wen expressway Taizhou section,and from Ruian to Cangnan sections,Chang-Tai expressway Tiantai east sections.